From special operation to strange war: John Helmer analyzes the military escalation and the lack of deterrence from Russia
In the interview with Nima on the Dialogue Works channel, journalist and military analyst John Helmer discussed the deep transformations in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. According to Helmer, confidential Russian military sources ironically mock the official term ‘special military operation,’ now calling it ‘strange military operation’ (Strandnaya). According to the analyst, this term denotes confusion and an internal perception that while Russian forces continue to advance slowly in western territory with a low casualty rate, the Kremlin fails to deter successive escalations promoted by NATO, which are now reflected in massive drone attacks inside Russian territory.John Helmer explained that the Russian strategy of symmetrical responses, or so-called eye for an eye, has proven ineffective in containing Western momentum. The journalist pointed out that the recent use of cluster munitions on Ukrainian drones targeting civilians and commercial infrastructure in Russia exposes Moscow’s inability to create a real mechanism of deterrence. According to Helmer, the fact that the British press is celebrating the pioneering use of its long-range drones on Russian territory demonstrates that the West has lost its fear of Kremlin threats, viewing Russian diplomatic warnings as mere empty bravado.Another crucial point addressed by Helmer refers to the escalation of conflict at sea. He highlighted that the approach of Russian cargo ships by Western naval forces should not be labeled merely as piracy, but rather as an act of open war. In Helmer’s assessment, Russian retaliations in the Black Sea, which have already cut Ukrainian grain exports by about sixty percent, have caused spikes in commodity prices in Chicago. However, the interviewee emphasized that land and railway routes through Poland continue to operate with insufficient interruptions by Russian forces, reflecting another facet of the tactical strangeness of this war.In the Asian geopolitical landscape, the analyst warned about the rapid process of Japan’s remilitarization promoted by the United States. Helmer recalled the long history of Russian-Japanese hostilities, from the clashes of 1904 until World War II, to explain the deep distrust that characterizes the current diplomacy led by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. According to Helmer, Washington is encouraging Tokyo to expand its military capabilities, bypassing historical constitutional limitations, with the clear intention of establishing a combat platform against China and Russia simultaneously.In the European scenario, Helmer observed a similar phenomenon of militarization in Germany and France, where dissenting voices and independent journalists are suffering severe financial sanctions to suppress criticism of arms buildups. He criticized analyses by Kremlin sectors that bet on electoral reversals in Europe, such as the rise of Alternative for Germany (AfD) or Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, highlighting that these right-wing parties already indicate an accommodation with anti-Russian guidelines to facilitate their rise to power. According to the analyst, the Russian belief in easy political changes in the West ignores the solidity of the imperial control exercised by Washington.Finally, the journalist commented on behind-the-scenes attempts to establish direct dialogue channels between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. Helmer revealed that figures such as Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff have lost credibility in Moscow, where they are viewed as distraction agents incapable of securing lasting agreements. Recently, Rodney Minns Cook’s name has emerged as a potential new envoy, but Helmer expressed skepticism regarding these informal initiatives. According to the interviewee, Russia faces the prospect of a protracted war against a Europe fully engaged in the conflict, with no clear timeline for Kyiv’s capitulation—sparking intense internal debates over the country’s strategic direction.