In an interview with the Dialogue Works channel, conducted by Nima Alkhorshid, former CIA analyst Larry Johnson assessed that U.S. economic pressure against Iran is likely to deepen instability in the Persian Gulf and accelerate shifts in regional alliances. The discussion stemmed from statements attributed to Mohsen Rezai, an Iranian security official, suggesting that Tehran might adopt a more offensive posture if neighboring countries cooperate with an economic war led by Washington.
According to Larry Johnson, the United States is not in a comfortable position to impose a change of government in Iran or to militarily weaken the country. The interviewee stated that the central issue is not merely Iranian rhetoric, but rather the decision that the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and other Gulf states will have to make in response to U.S. sanctions. Johnson argued that if these governments fully align themselves with Washington, Tehran may view them as targets for retaliation—a scenario that would exacerbate the energy crisis and have negative effects on the global economy.
The interviewee also commented on contradictory reports about the flow of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. In response to Nima Alkhorshid, Johnson sarcastically highlighted the inconsistency between claims that the strait remains open and simultaneous calls to punish Iran for allegedly restricting oil circulation. For him, these narratives reveal an information battle surrounding the energy market at a time when oil supply remains a decisive variable for the global economy.
Larry Johnson further stated that the war, which began in June 2025—as mentioned in the interview—would expose the United States’ inability to fully protect its allies and military bases in the region. According to the interviewee, the U.S. military presence in the Gulf no longer provides the same political and strategic guarantees as before. He assessed that Gulf Arab countries now face a structural choice: maintain their dependence on Washington or pursue new commercial, diplomatic, and even military relationships with regional and Eurasian powers—including Iran itself.
According to Johnson’s analysis, China emerges as one of the main beneficiaries of this process. The interviewee stated that Beijing has already consolidated new partnerships in the region and cited Chinese financial guarantees to Pakistan amid U.S. and IMF pressure. In his view, both China and Russia recognize America’s economic fragility and are likely to intensify strategic pressure on Washington—without necessarily engaging in direct, public confrontations. Johnson also emphasized that China rejects unilateral U.S. sanctions and is unlikely to join measures aimed at isolating Iran.
Regarding Iran’s nuclear program, Larry Johnson stated that Iran’s potential withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty would be interpreted by Donald Trump as a sign of intent to produce nuclear weapons—a development that could pave the way for new U.S. and Israeli attacks. Nevertheless, the interviewee said he understood Iran’s logic: Tehran joined the treaty as part of a rules-based international order but, in its assessment, failed to receive the expected protection against aggression by nuclear powers.
The interviewee also linked the Gulf crisis to the dollar’s waning strength. According to Larry Johnson, the United States’ attempts to use sanctions and tariffs as tools of coercion ultimately push affected countries to seek alternatives to Washington’s dominant financial system. He stated that the so-called ‘weaponization’ of the dollar fuels international resistance, encourages central banks to purchase gold, and accelerates trade efforts outside the U.S. orbit—particularly among Global South countries and partners of China and Russia.
In another part of the interview, Nima Alkhorshid raised the issue of Brazil’s, Canada’s, and China’s relationship in light of Donald Trump’s tariff policy. Johnson responded that U.S. measures against traditional partners tend to push those countries toward more intensive economic ties with Beijing. Regarding Brazil specifically, the host cited tariffs imposed in July, while the guest assessed that China offers an expanding consumer market and could replace part of the role previously played by the United States.
Larry Johnson also commented on the situation in Israel, Palestine, Syria, and Lebanon. Regarding Benjamin Netanyahu’s refusal to accept the creation of a Palestinian state, the interviewee stated that this position is not limited to the current Israeli prime minister and would likely persist even under different leadership in Tel Aviv. Addressing Syria and Lebanon, Johnson assessed that Turkey’s attempt to expand its influence over Damascus could place Ankara on a collision course with Israel—particularly in light of Israel’s recurrent attacks in the region.
In the end, the interviewee returned to the themes of intelligence and propaganda. Larry Johnson stated that Israel has succeeded in building an image of power that exceeds its actual capabilities, yet it faces internal problems, including in the field of intelligence. According to him, there is a process of politicization similar to that observed in the United States. The Dialogue Works interview, therefore, offered a broad interpretation of the crisis: the pressure against Iran would not be an isolated episode but rather part of a larger struggle over energy, alliances, currencies, trade routes, and the relative decline of U.S. influence.