Uruguayan meteorologist Madeleine Renom forecasts that the developing El Niño event will deliver a warmer-than-average winter and bring heavy rains to the country’s north between September and January, with repercussions likely into mid-2027. The outlook, which she shared with local media on Thursday, aligns with a warning from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) that there is an 80 percent probability of El Niño forming between June and August and persisting at least until November.

Renom said average temperatures during the June-to-August winter period would sit “always above normal,” though she cautioned this would not mean an absence of cold spells. The most pronounced rainfall surpluses are expected between September and January, concentrated primarily north of the Río Negro—a zone encompassing sensitive rice-growing areas, extensive cattle ranching and rain-fed agriculture. She noted that a similar wet pattern could reappear across much of the country in April 2027.

The north’s excess moisture contrasts with a drier outlook for southern departments, where below-average precipitation is expected. This divergence should be taken into account for agricultural planning over the coming months, Renom said.

The WMO’s update on Tuesday reinforced the forecast, indicating that El Niño is likely to last until at least November.