Uruguayan meteorologist Madeleine Renom said on Thursday that a global El Niño event will deliver warmer-than-normal winter temperatures and above-average rainfall to northern Uruguay between September and January, with effects likely extending until mid-2027. Her forecast comes as the World Meteorological Organization this week raised the probability of El Niño developing between June and August to 80 per cent.

Renom explained that mean temperatures during the Southern Hemisphere winter months of June, July and August would be “always above normal”, although occasional cold spells would still occur. The warm anomaly will define the season, she added.

Precipitation patterns are set to diverge sharply. Above-average rainfall will focus mainly north of the Río Negro, an agricultural zone that includes rice-producing departments, extensive livestock farms and rain-fed crops most sensitive to moisture swings. Southern Uruguay, by contrast, will receive less rain than usual, a split that Renom said should already inform planting and water management decisions.

Renom added that the wet pattern could repeat across much of the country in April 2027, reinforcing the event’s extended reach. The WMO’s outlook expects El Niño to persist at least until November, amplifying risks for Uruguay’s rice, cattle and dryland farming sectors.